Why do the huge majority of punters come off second best in their battle with the bookmakers? The answer is due to numerous factors which all need confronted before the tide can be turned.
Understanding Value
Value is a term often used but mostly misunderstood. To be able to profit consistently over the long term you have to back at “value” prices. The majority of punters approach a race with the mentality of finding the most likely winner. This is the sort of unprofitable short term thinking that bookmakers love, and many bettors simply cannot shake off.
To be able to profit you need to approach a betting market and ask; which horse is a bigger price than it should be? If nothing stands out and every horse is generally positioned in the betting as expected, move on - there is no bet here. Being able to continually locate value bets on a daily basis requires skill and experience. This is where the Paceform speed figures have helped me continually profit from the sport. They allow me to quickly identify horses with racecourse achievements that are under appreciated by the betting market. I’ll regularly look at a race and find horses that are over priced and have conditions to suit. See “Using The Figures” and the other video tutorials under the Speed Figures tab on our website for an explanation of the methods I use.
Death, Taxes and Losing Runs
There is no escaping the inevitable losing runs that you will have to face if you want to be successful long term. Understanding what to expect is important so you can mentally condition yourself for when it happens and know it is normal. I personally have operated at around a 23% strike rate (due to the large prices I back at) for a number of years, meaning I lose 77% of the bets I place. Mathematically, this means every 500 bets I can expect a sequence of 24 straight losers (and many other smaller losing runs). If I did not understand probabilities and how they work, when I hit this patch I may quit or think I’ve lost my edge. This is not the case. The majority of bettors give up during these mentally challenging phases. That is why they will never profit, jumping from method to method without ever getting the huge rewards of consistent behaviour. For more on this topic "See The Full Picture" is an article I wrote regarding losing runs.
If you follow my selections, or master the Paceform speed figures for yourself, the keys to success are:
Setting aside a pot of money purely for betting
Staking 1% of this pot per point
Win singles, no accumulators
Adjusting the 1% stake daily as the bank increases
Having multiple bookmaker accounts to gain best prices
Accepting the losing runs and not deviating from the process
So you’ve got your edge and you understand and accept losing runs. You’re sticking to the staking and obtaining the best prices available in the market. The only thing left for you to do is maintain your discipline and manage your bank. If you’re missing any of the key ingredients you will fail. However, combine them all together and it’s a sure fire recipe for consistent profits.
Success is the sum of small efforts, repeated day in day out.
Rob
Paceform Figures
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